Title: Informe Colombia – FMI, Author: Carlos Salazar, Length: 73 pages, Published: A data ROSC took place in and a fiscal ROSC in Su principal objetivo es hacer un diagnóstico sobre la situación local acerca del “ cumplimiento” de los estándares internacionales en materia. INFORME ROSC LINA ARDILA DARSI GUEVAR ¿QUE ES EL INFORME ROSC? 1. MARCO LEGAL: Requisitos jurídicos y legales del país.
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Risk Assessment Matrix 1. The expansion of the largest financial institutions across the region poses additional challenges for supervision.
The investor base is dominated by locals, but the presence of foreign investors is rising. Lnforme significant progress has informee made, there is still a need to take additional steps. DANE currently compiles a monthly indicator of economic activity for internal purposes, but has decided to start disseminating it to the general public during the third quarter of Current account balance in percent of GDP ccolombia Similarly, the profit growth after was, on average, 7 percent lower for those industries that faced higher competition from Chinese imports.
Both NIIP and external debt are relatively low compared to peer countries and have remained so for several years. As of Marchheadline inflation rose to 2. In addition, the substantial foreign investment of recent years and the incorporation of new technologies have allowed the onforme to attain a high reserve replacement rate of about percent for Ecopetrol in the last 5 yearswith the trend likely to continue.
The deficit is mainly associated with high imports in line with economic activity related to FDI and to retail and industrial sectors and high profit remittances from foreign companies.
Similarly, spreads on 5-year credit default swaps, at 90 basis points on May 22, rose initially by over 80 basis points, later recovering and stabilizing at about 20 basis points above pre-May 22 levels. The report makes policy recommendations that may be grouped under three broad headings: Oil Sector Mining Sector Other sectors The implementation of programs to coombia informal workers and the elderly poor into the social security system is an important step.
On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
The current policy mix is broadly adequate. Reserves to reserve adequacy metric in stands at percent rosf to the range of to percent considered adequate for precautionary purposes.
Staff reiterated that a key priority remains enhancing the independence and legal protection of supervisory staff with regard to the execution of their duties.
The analysis colomiba that compensating for a larger decline in oil and mining revenue would require a fiscal effort of 0. Informal workers in Colombia cut across all age, gender, and educational groups.
The deficit of the combined public sector is projected to decline slightly to 0.
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Bond market stress from a reassessment in sovereign risk: The current account deficit is more than financed by capital flows, mostly in the form of foreign direct investment. Adjustments on the expenditure side would also be needed to improve the efficiency of spending, including by reducing costs from healthcare provision. The authorities agreed that adhering to the fiscal plan would require exceptional discipline, but they expressed confidence that the targets would be met given broad consensus for the fiscal rule.
As a result of its important linkages with the rest of the world, the Colombian economy is significantly exposed to external risks. The participation of nonresidents in the domestic equity and government bond markets is rising. At the same time, they agreed that the regional expansion of the Colombian banks brings new challenges for supervision.
WEO and Fund staff estimates.
Treasury yields translates into an increase of 91 to basis points in year TES yields after six months. A more comprehensive reform of the pension system will be required to broaden coverage and increase equity while maintaining the financial sustainability of the colombiq.
The authorities have acknowledged this new source of risk, and have undertaken mitigating actions.
The rebasing also resulted in an upward revision of the nominal GDP, reflecting improvements in source data. Balance of payment statistics have been extended to cover transactions in the free trade zones. The recent expansion of the largest institutions across the region, primarily in Central America, will require a deeper imforme to monitor and stress-test a wide variety of cross-border risks.
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To assess these effects, staff has developed a model of year government bond TES yields and a macroeconomic model to analyze the broader impact on the economy. Nonetheless, they saw room to enhance supervision of complex conglomerates and their exposure to concentration risk. Indeed, a credible long-term inflation target, a subdued exchange rate pass-through and low currency and FX term mismatches have rossc both consequences and conditions for the successful operation of the monetary and FX policy strategy.
The current account deficit and the real exchange rate are broadly in line colonbia fundamentals. The budget envisages a central government deficit of 2. On the fiscal front, one source of risk is that road concessions or other infrastructure projects lead to unforeseen public sector liabilities.
The financial system remained stable. The authorities indicated that they would step up efforts to strengthen tax administration, including by implementing IMF technical assistance recommendations.
Informe Colombia – FMI
In subsequent cklombia, yields fell somewhat, with year TES yields stabilizing at about 7 percent, about basis points above pre-tapering levels, by end See charts.
Google Buzz Stumble Upon Delicious. The mission encouraged the authorities to move forward with cost containment measures that can be implemented within the existing framework, in particular in the area of pharmaceutical prices, colomvia to make efforts to clear arrears with hospitals.
Shocks in the region could affect Colombia through trade and financial channels. Economic outlook The Colombian economy has continued to perform well. Although these changes would come as a result of a stronger US economy and higher external demand for EMs, adverse shocks through world financial markets could overwhelm any positive effect stemming from real channels. The exchange rate does not appear to have been an important inflrme of manufacturing sector weakness.
Informal work contributes to economic activity, but is less accurately measured, which distorts statistics on actual and potential GDP, and complicates macroeconomic policy analysis.
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It is important to address contingent fiscal pressures from the pension and health care systems. Risks associated with emerging markets and geopolitical tensions have increased since the last Article IV consultation.
The trade surplus narrowed as a result of lower exports, but was almost fully offset by a smaller deficit in the income account.
Likelihood Impact Policy Advice Side-effects from global financial conditions: Bid-ask spreads and volatility increased, and traded volumes declined, reflecting some market dislocation.